‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Tightens India's LPG Stock.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy transports through the vital shipping lane, supplies of kitchen fuel are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply isn't available," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are adopting traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, local news say up to a fifth of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their gas stocks have dwindled with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and authorities say cylinders are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now effectively closed by the conflict.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through diversification. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next gas canister.