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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.