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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference hindered from the top if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.