Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost lengthy war in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Mr. William Kerr
Mr. William Kerr

An avid mountaineer and writer sharing insights from global expeditions and wilderness survival.